Damon Runyon, the legendary 1930s sports columnist, once wrote, “the race may not go to the strong and swift, but that’s how to bet your money.”
I’ll spin that a bit differently for the 2004 race for President. In political terms, George Bush is the strongest and swiftest in this contest. Yet, I am still hesitant to put down my money that he will win.
For one reason, the Democrats seem united as never before. Their convention in Boston, for example, was done brilliantly. The major networks gave them limited airtime and they used it well. Most important, John Kerry gave an impressive speech, as did John Edwards. Equally important, the convention organizers kept the loony left out of sight of the media.
Another big factor in Kerry’s favor is that unlike Al Gore, he is taking Bill Clinton’s help in this campaign. During the convention, a newly slimmed Bill Clinton was …. well, Bill Clinton. He was funny, engaging, and all the while politically appealing. Only he could remind the country that George Bush, Dick Chaney, and he had not gone to Vietnam, but that John Kerry had. If our Constitution allowed a third term, Clinton would have pushed aside Kerry and everyone else on that stage and taken the nomination unanimously. By the afternoon of January 20, 2005, he would be back in the Oval Office interviewing a roomful of young female interns.
Although I am repelled by the notion, the Democrats are also doing an effective job of keeping Nader off the ballots of most states. As of now, he is only on the ballot of 6 states. So, Nader will not be draining off any appreciable number of votes from Kerry in this election.
Kerry and Edwards, meanwhile, are staying out of the public light, which, ironically, helps their campaign, enormously. The less seen they are, the better they are thought of. They may be wise enough to lay low through election day, though I doubt it.
Finally, there is the “hate” factor. Large numbers of Democrats seem to loath George Bush in much the same way that conservatives loathed Bill Clinton. Hate can be a powerful motivation for people to vote and the big mo on that is with the Dems.
Still, George Bush is President and he has all the advantages that brings. In this race, he must be considered the strongest and swiftest. As to betting, I’m holding off for a few more weeks.
PAT CHOATE
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